Welcome to another Nugget of Wisdom! A free post I send out once a week. These are designed to be short and sweet, a quick read to (hopefully) impart some sort of wisdom, or at the very least to get you thinking about something interesting.
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Just because your bags are down 90%, doesn’t mean they can’t go down another 90%.
This might not be the most positive and optimistic message to be putting out there at a time like this, but it’s realistic, honest, and perhaps, exactly what someone reading this needs to hear.
Take this from someone who has seen tokens in my portfolio drop 90%, then another 90%, and then, yes, literally, another 90% from there. It SUCKS to sell something that you’re down a lot on, but it sucks so much more to watch it continue to bleed and know you could have sold for *some* amount of money.
The reasons most people hold on to their positions is usually based on emotion, rather than logic. They’re based on hope, wishful thinking, or fear. The fear is that you sell and then the next day the thing you’ve been holding for years all of a sudden does a 10x.
Ask yourself how realistic is that, really? Yes, it happens, but it’s astonishingly rare and by far the most likely outcome on a token that is down 90% is that it will continue to go down.
In times like these when the whole market is bleeding and it genuinely feels like we might be on the precipice of a bear market, ask yourself, would you be happy holding all of your alts and NFTs if we go into a bear? Or are they only tokens you’re happy to hold during a bull market? (I know that nobody really wants to hold anything during a bear, but some things are clearly much better bear market holds than others).
If you don’t think the bull is over, it’s still a good time to assess your positions and ask yourself if you might feel better holding something else. It’s a good time to rank your holdings by conviction and then re-allocate any of your lower conviction positions to your higher conviction ones.
I guess the message today isn’t exactly revolutionary. It’s more of a poke to say hey, wake up, don’t just auto-pilot your way through the next few weeks and months. Take some time to consciously assess your holdings and ask yourself some difficult questions.
Regardless of what action you end up taking, I doubt you’ll regret taking an hour this week to do some portfolio soul searching.
Hopefully the market bounces strongly and we get the fabled next leg up into a new all time high in 2026, but you know what they say..
The question on everyone's mind lately seems to be whether the bull market is over or not. It is, quite literally, the trillion dollar question. I obviously can't tell you what's going to happen with any real certainty (and you should ignore and run from anyone who proclaims to be able to), but I can give you my best guess and, more importantly, explain how I try to think about questions like this.
Do you have any bags you're down 80% on this cycle ?