Weekly Nugget of Wisdom #37

A few thoughts about how this market feels like late 2022

Welcome to another Nugget of Wisdom! A free post I send out once a week. These are designed to be short and sweet, a quick read to (hopefully) impart some sort of wisdom, or at the very least to get you thinking about something interesting.

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A few thoughts about how this market feels like late 2022

I’ve been through a few bear markets in my time and they all share a few things in common:

• You go from checking your portfolio multiple times a day, to once every few days

• Instead of being excited to consume crypto content, you start to dread it, and it starts to feel a lot more like work than something you enjoy

• More and more people will leave the space and things will get slow, and quiet

• There’s an overwhelming sense of despair and doom and depression underpinning crypto twitter

• People start to talk about how things might be over for real this time, and how crypto is dead, and never coming back because of reasons XYZ

• There are systemic blowups and collapses that hurt a lot of people (FTX back then, 10/10 this time)

Sound familiar? I’m feeling a lot of these things and seeing a lot of these things on the timeline lately.

There are some pretty key differences, too, though:

• Back then, the scale of blowups were another level. Yeah 10/10 was bad, but it was honestly nothing compared to FTX, or Luna, or even many of the other things that happened in 2022

• Macro was also crashing back then. This is a bit of a double-edged sword. When macro is crashing and crypto alongside it, it sucks, but you can accept that there’s a correlation. When damn near every asset class in the world is hitting ATHs and crypto is floundering? It fuels the fears that crypto might be dead, but it also gives hope that there’s a lot of catching up to do at some point

• Institutional adoption is a real thing now, and while it certainly creates new market dynamics and new avenues for manipulation, it also offers some level of price support and stability

We’re clearly not in the depths of some deep bear market (yet), but the rumblings are there for something starting. I am still cautiously optimistic that things will turn around in the new year, but in the event that they don’t, I am preparing myself for a proper bear market.

One thing that a lot of people have a tendency to do when times are like this is check out and completely disconnect from the market. I think that’s a massive mistake, albeit an understandable one. This is one of the best times to be locking in and setting yourself up for success for whenever the market does turn around.

Most people won’t do that, but if you do, I guarantee you’re giving yourself a significant edge.

And future you will thank you for it.

Thanks for reading! In case you missed it, check out Monday’s post below 👇